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PRUE experts commentary in media
Whether the number of infected people in Russia will be more than 2% of the population?
Olga Lebedinskaya, Associate Professor of the Academic Department of Statistics of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics for RIA News.
"The number of infected people with coronavirus in Russia is unlikely to reach 2% of the population, but 1.2-1.3% - is quite achievable", said Olga Lebedinskaya, Associate Professor of the Academic Department of Statistics of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics to RIA News.
"Can the number of cases reach the level of 2% of the population? Theoretically it is possible if Rt index (infection spread rate) in regions with high population will remain at the level of 1.3 for a long time. The situation is not bad now, but it can change, unfortunately. Taking into the consideration that in almost all Russian regions Rt index is more than 1", ' added the expert.
According to the expert, in 40 countries the number of cases has already exceeded 1% of the population, while in 18 of them - 2%.
More than 3% of the population was suffered in Panama, Israel, and Andorra. In Qatar and Bahrain – over 5%.
Of course, against these indicators, it may be taken to mean that the situation in Russia is not so dangerous - Russia takes the 46th place in the world. But the fourth place in the world by the number of infected people and the third by the number of pandemic victims don't inspire optimism at all.
The second wave of coronavirus will bring Russia prolonged downturn
Alexey Yashkin, Associate Professor of the Academic Department of Public and Municipal Administration for «Nezavisimaya» newspaper.
There is no doubt that the second wave of coronavirus is coming. In Russia a new outbreak of the diseases is expected in autumn.
But this time the response to the new wave of diseases will not be general quarantine lockdown of the economy.
Experts warn that the second wave may be stronger than the first one, involving Russia into a deep recession, from which the country will have to get out for years.
«The consequences of the second wave will be less catastrophic than the consequences of the first wave. This is due to the fact that over the past three months, our country has already had the experience in cooperating between individuals and legal entities in pandemic conditions, and key business processes have been built in conditions of partial isolation», - says Alexey Yashkin, Associate Professor of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
Russia and COVID-19
Marina Shilina, Professor D. Sc. of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics to Italian online magazine ytali.
Marina Shilina, Professor D. Sc. of PRUE told about how Russian society, scientific community has been reacting to this pandemic and where is the key to find new solutions, a new paradigma and new tools in order to adjust to this new «way of life».
Regarding Moscow pandemic scenario the expert said: «The Moscow pandemic scenario is still quite specific, it seems to me. The Chinese version, when in a provincial metropolis the infection was localized, was hardly possible to implement in Moscow. Moscow is the largest Russian city and transport hub… According to official sources, the virus was brought to Russia from Europe and then infection chains began. So far, Moscow gives high numbers of coronavirus infected».
The expert told also how the universities had moved to distance learning, the role of universities in social life and about some changes in students' worldview: «In this sense, the Plekhanov University complies with international standards… But a quick online translation of all activities and daily life changes is an obvious force majeure. In terms of organization, everything was rebuilt quickly… Technical development of distant formats took some time, because when the whole university (tens of thousands of students and teachers) comes to study online, respectively, the load on the system increases».
«In social life, the university continues to be a point of communication growth: hundreds of people still come to the traditional continuing education courses at the Plekhanov, which are online now».
«Self-isolation brought positive changes in the relationship. Staying home, many students say that they understood that the family is their place of power. During these difficult months, we, teachers and students, have become humanly closer. I think it's just because now when we are getting in touch, we will certainly ask how our students' families and loved ones are. In general, we are all looking forward to the summer and holidays with special impatience!»
Marina Shilina noted that the period of self-isolation, quarantine, social distancing, had proved the importance of new media as a new paradigm and suitable communication and interaction tools: «In the lock-up crisis, digital media – in the broadest sense, as social communication means – become a priority resource for adapting to a new reality».
«New communication tools will be invented on a regular basis. And in all cases, it is important that our new civic media solidarity remains the key paradigm».
How will the labor market looks like after coronavirus?
Konstantin Ordov, Professor of Department of Financial Management to "Vechernyaya Moskva"
«Vecherka» found out what professions will be most popular after the pandemic.
After the pandemic, creative professions will also be in high demand, said Konstantin Ordov, Professor of the Department of financial management of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. This is mainly due to robotization of many production processes. It is very difficult to replace a creative man by robot.
First of all, after the epidemic, we will see a demand for people who is able to develop and implement automative systems, said Konstantin Ordov.
Of course, it will be high paying work. It will let the company increase its efficiency and profit, he added.
The expert is sure that the term «profession» in its classical sense may disappear at all after coronavirus. Person's skills and knowledge will come to the fore. The more you can do the higher the labor market demand on you.
Specialists of all professions and all industries will need to get new skills, Konstantin Ordov told «Vecherka».
The priority will have just those skills that are connected with high technology. For example, a higher salary will not get a programmer, but an accountant who knows any special program automating his labor.
Experts note that only those who have been engaged in self-education for a long time will be able to avoid the need for retraining.
China will show the world what the economy is expecting after the coronavirus
Oleg Cherednichenko, Associate Professor of Department of Economic Theory to the Agency «Prime»
The sharp drop in China's GDP recording in the first quarter of the year was expected because of epidemic. After the pandemic, there are three scenarios of developing of Chinese economy, but in any case, a V-shaped recovery will remain an unrealized dream, according to analysts polled by the Agency «Prime».
«Taking into consideration specifics of Chinese economy, the internal structure of this decline looks quite logical: a decrease in industrial production-13.5%, a decrease in investment in fixed assets — 16.1%, and retail sales fell in January and February by 20.5%», adds Oleg Cherednichenko, Associate Professor of economic theory at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
«However, quite strict and logical measures of the Chinese Government for stopping the virus spread have achieved their goals: production in this country has started functioning», he adds.
«In case of repeat virus ourbreak or long-term delay in the victory over the virus in the United States, Europe and Russia, there is still the possibility of negative L-scenario of economic downturn not only for China, but for the whole world», Cherednichenko notes. According to him, this is an extreme case, and the consolidated efforts of the world community are addressing to exclude this way.
How the coronavirus pandemic hit the system of modern capitalism
Oleg Cherednichenko, Associate Professor of Department of Economic Theory to the magazine «Profile»
By the end of 2020, the world economy is likely show symbolic growth of 0.4% at best. The analysts from the Institute of international Finance (IIF), located in Washington, in their negative forecast believe that there are high risks of further spread of coronavirus infection and uncertainty about when countries will be able to cope with the insidious disease.
The coronavirus pandemic has become a litmus test for the world economy, showing how much many production chains in different countries depend on Chinese components. According to Oleg Cherednichenko, Associate Professor of Department of Economic Theory of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, this dependence was so high that enterprises in various industries were in danger of being shut down.
Not only importers, but also exporters were affected. The decline in demand and investment activity in China has damaged to companies, including Russian companies that supply raw materials and energy resources to China. The failure of OPEC+ deal has further worsened the situation in oil market and has resulted in falling of world prices for black gold.
According to Oleg Cherednichenko, the last circumstance is profitable for developing countries, where multinational companies had been actively creating production of goods and services over the past decades. «For example, China or India, whose economies are largely energy-dependent, will get an additional boost for post-crisis recovery due to low prices for hydrocarbon raw materials. Therefore, they will become even more attractive to foreign investors», Cherednichenko said.
Epidemic zeroes out a market economy
Olga Lebedinskaya, Associate Professor for «Nezavisimaya newspaper»
The result of the economic crisis related with negative pandemic consequences will be expansion of the public sector and nationalization.
But it is unlikely that it will be able to stabilize the situation for a long time.
NG interviewed some experts and they explained: on the one hand the nationalization of enterprises is a guarantee of employment, wages and production of important goods; on the other hand, as the Soviet experience showed, the nationalization will be ineffective in trade and services.
«Experience shows that nationalization is not the worst option in economic downturn. In conditions of drastic decline in living standards, it is necessary to create a public good and keep an employment - the steps which the state is able to take. But there is another problem – the need to solve the problem of falling demand and breaking global supply chains», explained Olga Lebedinskaya, Associate Professor of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
Global economic crisis is unlikely to finish soon if the issues of the coronavirus pandemic and low oil prices are not resolved
Oleg Cherednichenko, Associate Professor of Department of Economic Theory to RIA News
The global economic crisis is unlikely to finish soon if the issues of the coronavirus pandemic and low oil prices are not resolved, - said to RIA News Oleg Cherednichenko, Associate Professor of Department of Economic Theory of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, said earlier that the world economy had almost stopped and the situation is much worse than it was during the crisis of 2008-2009.
«If there is no turn the tide on the situation with oil price and the pandemic, the forecasts will be very poor, and the way out of the crisis in the short term will be unlikely», the expert said.
As Cherednichenko explained, the crisis was triggered by a chain of factors: a pandemic around the world with a drastic falling demand in China, which caused a chain reaction around the world. «To this shock was added the incoherence between participants of OPEC+ bargain, as a result of which the world received the oil prices at the same level as it was at the end of 2002», he added.
However, on the expert's opinion, if the problems can be solved, the situation will change within three months. «Now the world is waiting for the results of the meeting (OPEC+), scheduled for April 6. If a compromise is reached, oil prices may go up to the level of USD 40 and more», he said.
«The second impulse, that all the major world economies is working on, is overcoming the «crisis virus». In China the virus is almost defeated. If the rest of the countries, including Russia, manage to avoid the «Italian scenario», then the symbiosis of decisions on this and the oil issue will allow us to talk about the possibility of breaking the negative consequences in the next three months», Cherednichenko concluded.